Al-Akhbar
Aden is currently the scene of intensive efforts from Yemen’s Southern Movement to reach a unified vision in light of the continuing dispute among its leaders over the best methods by which to achieve their demands.
The developments on the South Yemen scene suggest that the coming period will witness a wide-spread political escalation.
This cannot be considered in isolation from the exceptional climate in Yemen at present, particularly with the unprecedented international attention given to the southern cause since the movement in the region succeeded in putting their demands for secession back on the table.
It may be too early for senior southern leaders to return to Yemen, such as Ali Salem al-Baid, as sources close to the movement denied rumors that he plans on coming back in the near future. The same goes for former South Yemeni prime minister Haidar Abu Bakr al-Attas and former president Ali Nasir Muhammad.
Nevertheless, it is almost certain that South Yemen will see the return from exile of a number of other leaders of the Southern Movement. Mohammed Ali Ahmed was among the first to take arrive a few months ago, followed by Ahmed Abdullah al-Hassani two weeks ago.
These developments coincided with intensive talks in the South among several leading figures in preparation for a comprehensive conference to come up with a unified vision for the southern cause.
This comes after the UN envoy to Yemen Jamal bin Omar began consultations with southern leaders to persuade them to take part in the national dialogue, with the southern question expected to be at the top of its agenda.
Yet the level of optimism about the possibility of unifying the factions of the Southern Movement is not high. Differences among the elites leading the political affairs of the southern cause remain unresolved.
In Beirut, Yahya Ghalib Shuaibi, a leader in the Southern Movement, said with full confidence that those Yemenis in the South in favor of secession represent the largest political grouping.
While acknowledging discussion on the southern question between the UN envoy and several leaders of the movement within Yemen, Shuaibi denied rumors that a date has been set for a meeting between Baid and Omar.
Shuaibi also said that they had no intention of participating in the national dialogue, adding that the only acceptable dialogue for Baid’s faction is one that is based on the five conditions they declared on the 18th anniversary of the Declaration of Disengagement and the Restoration of the State.
At the top of these conditions is the demand that the southern question be the only item on the agenda, rather than a national dialogue that covers various issues like the one being prepared at present.
Shuaibi categorized those in favor of federalism, who are likely to participate in the dialogue, as being the elites supported by regional states – and not the people.
This is rejected by the factions of the Southern Movement, who stress that their demand is for the restoration of the state of South Yemen and to fulfill the will of the people in a prudent manner.
Other leaders also in exile stress that not all those who adopt the slogan of restoring the South Yemeni state are entitled to speak on the behalf of southerners, possibly in reference to Ahmed Abdullah al-Hassani and the faction he is currently affiliated with.
These sources point out that Hassani stood by Saleh in the 1994 war that imposed unity by force, before breaking with him in 2005.
Other sources argue that the suffering of the southerners today is the result of the unrepresentative decision to accept reunification in 1990 in their name, without actually consulting them.
This division among leaders of the Southern Movement abroad is not so different from what is taking place among southern leaders within Yemen amid preparations for at least two conferences.
The first is being held under the title of the National Conference of the Supreme Council, and is supported by Baid and engineered by Hassan Ahmed Baoum, the head of the movement's Supreme Council, alongside Hassani. Meanwhile, Mohammed Ali Ahmed is preparing to hold another conference.
Some see this as a healthy sign, but others express their concern that the multiple conferences may prove to be a deadly blow to the southern question. They argue that a solution requires that all relevant actors in the South are united rather than being fragmented, as is the case at present.
Ahmed told Al-Akhbar that what he is preparing to hold is a popular conference that does not represent a political entity, stressing that while anyone may claim to be the legitimate representative of the South, it is the people alone who have the freedom to determine their true representatives.
Regarding the reasons for these multiple conferences and the differences among southern leaders, Ahmed said, “We are not in disagreement over goals, but rather over slogans.”
“Our slogans are freedom, self-determination, and the restoration of the South Yemen state, while theirs are liberation and independence,” he added. He then reaffirmed that it is the people that will have the final word on this matter.
Ahmed spoke about the need to take into account the conditions and desires of the South, saying that he has no objection to taking part in the national dialogue, when the conditions are right, and regardless of whether other southern factions participate or not.
According to Ahmed, the South is living through a real tragedy, requiring serious efforts to resolve its crisis rather than mere emotions. He then stressed that the will and welfare of the people are stronger than the will of individuals.
When asked about the conditions for participating in the national dialogue, he stated that the it must take place under international and regional supervision, and must allow for all issues to be included in its agenda without any preconditions.
This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition
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