defensenews /By Awad Mustafa
The leadership crisis in Yemen and the death of Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz has raised alarms all over Middle Eastern capitals concerning the Gulf Cooperation Council's (GCC's) security setting.
In the hours following the two events, defense experts are unclear of the GCC's next moves, but acknowledge the complex linkages between the "coup" in Yemen and the new Saudi leadership's concern over its neighbors to the south.
Meanwhile, the newly appointed Saudi defense minister has a thin resume when it comes to defense matters, and the new king is expected to exercise control of the country's weapons portfolio.
The GCC on Feb. 21 slammed the acts of Houthi rebels in Yemen as "terrorist" and called on the Shiite group to vacate the presidential palace and surrender control of state institutions.
Despite that, Yemen's minority Shiite Houthi fighters, who are believed to be funded and supported militarily by Iran, have taken up guard at President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi's home and forced his and his Cabinet's resignation.
In a statement, the Gulf Arab foreign ministers meeting in Saudi Arabia considered the violence in Sana'a on Jan. 20 a "coup d'etat," This comes on the back of perceptions that this is a major advance for Tehran in the Arabian Peninsula.
"GCC and particularly Saudi Arabia have few connections within the Houthi group and its incursions are perceived in the GCC as a major advance for Tehran," said Yuri Barmin an independent gulf military analyst.
"With President Mansour Hadi resigning, the power struggle in Yemen enters its active phase. Hadi was forced to sign a ceasefire with Houthis promising them a role in the government, but with his resignation there is no one to deliver on this promise," he added.
"The spillover of the conflict into Saudi Arabia is unlikely, but formation of a Houthi-led government in Yemen could play into Iran's hand providing Tehran with a major ally in the Arabian peninsula, leading to further deterioration in [Saudi]-Iran relations," Barmin said.
New Saudi Leaders
Saudi Arabia has been following the developments in Yemen, but has taken little action, said Emirati political analyst Abdul Khaleq Abdullah.
Saudi Arabia's new King Salman bin Abdulaziz, left,
Saudi Arabia's new King Salman bin Abdulaziz, left, carries the body of his half-brother late King Abdullah along with other family members during the funeral in Riyadh on Jan. 23. (Photo: AFP PHOTO/HO/SPA)
"Any decision for movement or action towards Yemen is 80 percent taken in Riyadh," Abdullah said. "Saudi Arabia has the biggest interest and political and diplomatic alliances within Yemen, compared to other countries, and shares a 1,700-kilometer border where tribes and families and interests intertwine."
"In the recent period, Riyadh has been looking from afar, but intensely," he added. "For the first time, it is not clear who runs the Yemeni file with in the Saudi circles."
He said there is a possibility of this changing with the accession of King Salman bin Abdulaziz to power following the king's death on Jan. 23. "What is sure is that they will not support the Houthi group and will look for the legitimate powers to retake the government."
The new power structure in Saudi Arabia does not point toward any major shifts in policy toward defense, oil, foreign affairs or home affairs, Abdullah added.
The appointments of Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz as crown prince, Prince Mohammad bin Salman as defense minister and Prince Mohammed bin Nayef as deputy prime minister are purely political appointments.
Yet the new defense minister is only 34.
"The appointments are political rather than based on experience and this shows that he has a lot of confidence from his father who held the same portfolio," Abdullah said.
Prince Mohammad is a law graduate from King Saud University who has held positions as adviser at the Experts' Commission of the Council of Ministers; special adviser to the governor of Riyadh Province; president of the Crown Prince's Court and special adviser to the crown prince.
Prince Mohammad's only tie to defense was during his father's reign as defense minister. "This is an indication that the new king will still control the defense portfolio by the appointment of his son," Abdullah said.
Possible Actions
Since the Houthi incursions toward Sana'a began and over the past few weeks, Saudi Arabia has been fortifying its border and speeding up construction of a wall between the two countries.
According to Saudi sources, the priority now is sealing the mountainous Yemeni border with a fence modeled on its expensive frontier defenses with Iraq.
A report in the Saudi local press on Jan. 22 said Saudi Arabia was working "day and night" to finish its border fence, but the Interior Ministry says it will still take some years to complete.
The actions being taken by Saudi Arabia and its Arabian Gulf allies has been to stop aid to Yemen and create financial troubles for the Houthi group. Saudi Arabia's greatest leverage in Yemen has been through financial aid.
"Yemen is the poorest state in the region and is tired," Abdullah said. "Stopping the aid for six months can be a big hit to them."
Barmin said the events in Yemen is part of a bigger crisis that promises infighting within the Zaydi Shia group, to which Houthis belong.
However, neither Abdullah nor Barmin expect any direct GCC action.
"Saudi Arabia is the one who may lobby for this, but even Riyadh is now more concerned about the insecurity of its border with Iraq where Islamic State presence is heavy and where there is an immediate threat," Barmin said.
"The Islamic State have explicitly stated that Saudi Arabia, home to Mecca and Medina, is their key goal," Barmin said. "Even though Saudi Arabia convened the GCC states on [Jan. 21] to notify them that Riyadh is ready to protect its interests in Yemen, in reality all [Saudi Arabia] may do is seal its mountainous border with Yemen. Besides, any Saudi action in Yemen may now be slowed by King Abdullah's death."
A more viable option other than direct action would be the cessation of South Yemen after the announcement by southern leaders on Jan. 22.
Leaders of Yemen's southern separatist movements have taken to airwaves to call for secession, and security authorities in southern Yemen closed all borders into Aden and said they are no longer taking orders from Sana'a and have ordered local political and security leaders in the south to do the same.
After the announcements, hundreds of Yemenis took to the streets in Aden demanding independence for the south, Yemeni media reported.
Barmin said the secession of southern Yemen would significantly destabilize the region and particularly the Bab al-Mandab Strait that connects the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. "The strait is an important trade route, especially for the oil-producing countries of the GCC who transport much of their oil through the Red Sea to Europe."
However, Abdullah evaluated that the independence of South Yemen could provide an opportunity for the GCC to counter the Iranian involvement in the north.
"If secession happens, I imagine that the GCC would support it to counter Iran and the Houthis in the north," he said.
This would allow al-Qaida to focus its efforts against the north because part of the military Sunni extremist fighters would move to battle the Shiite Houthi clans, he added.
The People's Democratic Republic of Yemen, which was established in 1967 as the Arab world's only Marxist-Leninist state, received support from the Soviet Union and Gamel Abdel Nasser's Egypt.
"Al Sissi's Egypt as well as Arab states would accept, recognize and support an independent South Yemen, but with out influencing their independence I believe," Abdullah said.
Financial and monetary help would be the option on the table for the southern Yemenis, he said.
"This is needed to protect it from al-Qaida and help develop its infrastructure, but all this is dependent on the speed of movement of the southern leaders and if there is movement in Aden to realize a state during the next week to a month.
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